A novel harmony search algorithm for one-year-ahead energy demand estimation using macroeconomic variables

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URI: https://hdl.handle.net/11556/2432
ISSN: 2194-5357
ISBN: 9783319079943
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-07995-0_25
Publication date
2014
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Springer Verlag
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Abstract
In this paper we tackle a problem of one-year ahead energy demand estimation from macroeconomic variables. A modified Harmony Search (HS) algorithm is proposed to this end, as one of the novelties of the paper. The modifications on the proposed HS include a hybrid encoding, with a binary part to carry out a feature selection, and a real part, to select the parameter of a given prediction model. Some other adaptation focussed on the HS operators are also introduced. We study the performance of the proposed approach in a real problem of Energy demand estimation in Spain, from 14 macroeconomic variables with values for the last 30 years, including years of the crisis, from 2008. The performance of the proposed HS with feature selection is excellent, providing an accurate one year ahead prediction that improves previous proposals in the literature.
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Publisher Copyright: © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.
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Control and Systems Engineering , General Computer Science
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conference output
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Salcedo-Sanz , S , Portilla-Figueras , J A , Muñoz-Bulnes , J , del Ser , J & Bilbao , M N 2014 , A novel harmony search algorithm for one-year-ahead energy demand estimation using macroeconomic variables . in F Klett , A Abraham , Á Herrero , B Baruque , A C P L F de Carvalho , H Quintián , E Corchado , H Quintián , J G de la Puerta , I G Ferreira & P G Bringas (eds) , International Joint Conference SOCO 2014 - CISIS 2014 - ICEUTE 2014, Proceedings . Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing , vol. 299 , Springer Verlag , pp. 251-258 , International Joint Conference on 9th International Conference on Soft Computing Models in Industrial and Environmental Applications, SOCO 2014 with 7th International Conference on Computational Intelligence in Security for Information Systems, CISIS 2014 and 5th International Conference on EUropean Transnational Education, ICEUTE 2014 , Bilbao , Spain , 25/06/14 . https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07995-0_25
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