ENSO Influence on Western European summer and fall Temperatures

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dc.contributor.authorMartija-Díez, Maialen
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
dc.contributor.authorLópez-Parages, Jorge
dc.contributor.institutionTecnalia Research & Innovation
dc.contributor.institutionWEATHER AND CLIMATE INTELLIGENCE FOR BUSINESS
dc.date.issued2021-10-01
dc.descriptionPublisher Copyright: © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
dc.description.abstractIn certain regions, such as Europe, the increase in global air temperatures in the world is translated into more frequent extreme events. Recent studies suggest that the increasing intensity in heatwaves seems to be related to the interannual variability of the mean temperature, a finding that motivates the search for its possible predictability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal predictor of global climate variability at interannual time scales. Its impact on European climate has been deeply studied in relation to rainfall variability, but only a few studies exist that focus on its impact on temperature. In this work, we focus on the analysis of the interannual variability of maximum and minimum temperatures in order to find some predictability and trends. To that end, we choose the western European region, which has experienced intense heatwaves and is also the main region of air temperature interannual variability in Europe. Our results indicate that the ENSO impact on temperatures over this region is nonlinear and nonstationary. We have found the way in which, during the decades prior to 1980s, the increase in temperatures is related to La Niña in summer and to El Niño in fall during the decades after the 1980s, which shows a change in the seasonality of the impact. We study the dynamical mechanisms involved, which suggest a circumglobal response for summer and an arching-like teleconnection pattern in fall. The aforementioned warmer conditions in western European temperatures are found to be significantly correlated to ENSO characteristics of previous seasons, which suggests a potential source for improving the seasonal forecast.en
dc.description.statusPeer reviewed
dc.format.extent19
dc.format.extent7328961
dc.identifier.citationMartija-Díez , M , Rodríguez-Fonseca , B & López-Parages , J 2021 , ' ENSO Influence on Western European summer and fall Temperatures ' , Journal of Climate , vol. 34 , no. 19 , pp. 8013-8031 . https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0808.1
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/jcli-d-20-0808.1
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755
dc.identifier.otherresearchoutputwizard: 11556/1205
dc.identifier.urlhttp://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85115341234&partnerID=8YFLogxK
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Climate
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject.keywordsENSO
dc.subject.keywordsTemperature
dc.subject.keywordsClimate
dc.subject.keywordsPredictability
dc.subject.keywordsENSO
dc.subject.keywordsTemperature
dc.subject.keywordsClimate
dc.subject.keywordsPredictability
dc.subject.keywordsClimate variability
dc.subject.keywordsSea surface temperature
dc.subject.keywordsTeleconnections
dc.subject.keywordsAtmospheric Science
dc.titleENSO Influence on Western European summer and fall Temperaturesen
dc.typejournal article
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