Browsing by Keyword "TIMES"
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Item Evolution of NOx and SO2 emissions in Spain: Ceilings versus taxes(2015-02-21) García-Gusano, Diego; Cabal, Helena; Lechón, Yolanda; PLANIFICACIÓN ENERGÉTICAEven though significant NOx and SO2 emissions reductions have been observed in Spain during last decade, there is a strong commitment to keep reducing the levels of pollution in order to improve air quality standards. This work has been carried out to ease the lack of National Emission Ceilings Directive (NECD) assessments at country level. The Spanish case has been used as illustrative of the European Union. The evolution of NOx and SO2 emissions has been analysed in depth using the TIMES-Spain energy optimisation model. The work has been structured into three parts. First, the implementation of the NECD and the consequences both on the evolution of NOx and SO2 emissions, and the electricity production mix; second, taxation on these pollutants has been modelled and discussed; and finally, the proposed "2013 EU Clean Air Package" ceilings to update NECD have been assessed. Results showed that meeting NECD targets would involve a high contribution of renewable sources to the electricity system, mainly wind and solar. In addition, NOx and SO2 taxation has been assessed. Results showed that taxes on pollutants led to lower emissions than using NECD. Hence, current ceilings are not strict enough to internalise all the environmental damages associated to those pollutants. In consequence, the suitability of the NECD has been discussed by means of the new ceilings included in the EU Clean Air Policy Package. Results showed that proposed reductions are insufficient to compensate the environmental damages especially in the short term.Item Long-term behaviour of CO2 emissions from cement production in Spain: Scenario analysis using an energy optimisation model(2015-07-15) García-Gusano, Diego; Cabal, Helena; Lechón, Yolanda; PLANIFICACIÓN ENERGÉTICADuring the past decade, the Spanish cement production industry has experienced constant technological updates. Nevertheless, meeting current and future environmental policy goals requires extra efforts. The Spanish case is significant because cement production went down dramatically due to the last economic crisis. This brought an important, but temporary, reduction of CO2 emissions. Therefore, there is an interesting opportunity for cement producers and policymakers to adjust the long-term targets. This work discusses the evolution of the cement industry in Spain from a realistic point of view using recent cement demand projections and the TIMES-Spain energy optimisation model. Several environmental-friendly options were implemented in TIMES-Spain following a literature review. These measures, aimed at contributing to the decrease of emissions to meet the established policy goals, include energy efficiency improvements, substitution scenarios (both for fuel and materials) and CO2 capture (post-combustion and oxyfuel). From a policy approach, the deployment of the EU ETS Directive entails that CO2 emissions from cement production will decrease by 8 Mt per year from 2030 with respect to the case without Directive. In a more technology-specific analysis, a remarkable decrease of 2-2.4 Mt CO2 was obtained in the material substitution scenario beyond 2030. Additionally, taking into account current projections for cement demand, CO2 capture technology does not emerge as a feasible option. Only if cement demand grew back to the pre-crisis level by 2050 and the CO2 emission allowances remained fixed would the CO2 capture via post-combustion start to be a reasonable alternative.Item The role of the discount rates in energy systems optimisation models(2016-06) García-Gusano, Diego; Espegren, Kari; Lind, Arne; Kirkengen, Martin; PLANIFICACIÓN ENERGÉTICAThe selection of the social discount rate and the consideration of hurdle rates in energy systems optimisation models affect the creation of sound and comprehensive scenarios useful for energy modellers. Due to the lack of studies about the use of different discounting options in energy optimisation models, the goal of this paper is to fill that gap by establishing the foundations for a debate among energy modellers, policy-makers and stakeholders in this regard. So firstly, we introduced the concept of discount rates both social and technology-specific including a thorough literature review concerning figures, scopes and approaches. Secondly, two models, ETSAP-TIAM and TIMES-Norway, were used to assess the behaviour of the energy systems at different regionalisation levels, Europe and Norway respectively. Thirdly, we analysed the evolution of the electricity production mixes and system costs for both models and considering several values for the discount rates. Finally, results showed that the energy system is strongly affected by changes in the social discount rate. The lower the social discount rate is, the higher the renewable contribution. The social discounting exerts influence on capital intensive investments so it is quite important to look at the energy carriers pathways (fossil-renewable transition). This is what happens in the case of ETSAP-TIAM for Europe. Reversely, in the case of TIMES-Norway, as the electricity system is almost 100% renewable, it is important to take into account the hurdle rates of the technologies to enrich the competition by including their particular risks and barriers. In summary, we recommend using a value not higher than 4-5% for the social discount rate for the European countries as well as to include an exhaustive portfolio of hurdle rates for all the technologies included in the energy optimisation model.