Browsing by Keyword "Impacts"
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Item Climate change impacts on flood events and its consequences on human in Deba River(2014) Mendizabal, M.; Sepúlveda, J.; Torp, P.; Tecnalia Research & InnovationThe scientific community agrees that climate change is one of the greatest challenges that our society will have to face this century. Indeed, the fourth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) confirms the certitude of this phenomenon and its impacts, which can range from droughts to floods, health problems and food shortages. The principal objective of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on flood events and its consequences on human. This point is necessary to define and evaluate different adaptation options. Even taking into account the medium greenhouse emission scenario, according to the results, it is expected that extreme precipitation will increase during the twenty century, although there is an uncertainty in the percentage due to the climatic models. It is expected an increase in peak discharge between 14±9 and 15±8 for 3 models and for the period 2001-2040 with a return period exceeding 40 years. For the period 2041-2080 there is more uncertainty, it is expected an increase between 12±8 and 19±10 for 2 models. According to the results, changes in flood event are expected with its associated uncertainty and new flood zones are detected with greater hazard to people.Item Current and Future Impacts of Extreme Flood Events(Springer, 2013) Mendizabal, Maddalen; Moncho, Roberto; Torp, Peter; Tecnalia Research & InnovationInadequate timber extraction management of forests, cattle farming, abusive recreational practices, and rapid urban expansion are all factors that create significant problems in the Cantabrian area watershed for the sustainable management of the hydrological ecosystem services. These problems, added to the consequences of climate change, are already causing tangible and intangible damage to human and natural systems. Particularly for this coastal area, it is necessary to analyse flooding on a local scale. Therefore, the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation and its influence on discharge is researched in the Atlantic climate basin in the context of short, fast-flowing rivers. In this chapter, ENSEMBLES RT3 climate model outputs are analysed and calibrated with local observation data recorded daily. The hydrological/hydraulic coupling model (MikeShe-Mike11) is applied by forcing the validated model output. In order for results to remain spatially representative, basin and urban scales are studied. According to the results, under the medium greenhouse emission scenario (A1B), the Regional Climate Models HIRHAM (2001–2050) and RACMO (2051–2100) show an increase in extreme precipitation. The expected changes show spatial variability depending on local characteristics (topography, proximity to the coast, vegetation, etc.) and ranging between 6–26 % for HIRHAM and 11–12 % for RACMO. These changes in precipitation affect the river flow. An increase of 22 ± 2 % is expected in the HIRHAM climatic model for upstream peak discharge with a return period exceeding 50 years. The change in precipitation also causes an increase in flood damage. This is a result of the expected change in the river’s peak flow by 2,050 leading to an expansion of 3 % in the flood area as well as impacting the intensity of flooding. In this context, it has been necessary to define and assess the different adaptation options.Item Evaluation of automated road transport systems in cities(Elsevier, 2018-01-01) McDonald, Mike; Stam, Daniele; Salucci, Marco V.; Graindorge, Matthieu; Nair, Stéphanie; Graindorge, Tatiana; Malhene, Nicolas; Portouli, Evangelia; Karaseitanidis, Ioannis; Amditis, Angelos; Raptis, Odisseas; Karaberi, Christina; Vollichard, Philippe; Guala, Luca; Sechi, Francesco; Koskela, Gilbert; Murgoitio, Jesus; Izaguirre, María; Inclán, Asier; Pérez, Joshué Manuel; CCAMThe CityMobil2 project produced an evaluation framework for the ARTS, in order to provide evidence as to the credibility, form and implementation strategy for ARTS from a series of demonstrations. The evaluation framework has led to the building of blocks of knowledge that are sufficient to move to larger deployments that will test the ARTS as part of a comprehensive approach to a more sustainable transport. The evolution of the ARTS vehicles over the course of the project has been considerable, and the next stage of deployment should enable the full benefits to be quantified. In this chapter, the main results of the three CityMobil2 large-scale demonstrations (La Rochelle, Trikala and Lausanne) and three small-scale demonstrations (Oristano, Vantaa and San Sebastián) are reported, based on the guidelines provided by the evaluation framework.Item Prospective life cycle assessment of the Spanish electricity production(2017) García-Gusano, Diego; Garraín, Daniel; Dufour, Javier; PLANIFICACIÓN ENERGÉTICAThis paper presents a set of prospective LCA studies of electricity production technologies of the Spanish mix from 2014 to 2050. The projection of the power system has been done by using the TIMES-Spain energy model, in which two prospective scenarios have been implemented, a Business as Usual (BaU) and other with a target of 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 with respect to 2005 levels. Accordingly, projections of ten LCA impact categories have been obtained. Concerning the evolution of the electricity mix, the coal power plants retirement by 2020 has been observed in both scenarios. The main differences befall on the natural gas contribution, higher in the BaU scenario than in 80% scenario and connected to the Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants usage. In addition, LCA categories selected show overall reductions in the long term reaching from 21% in Ozone Depletion to 85% in Acidification in the BaU scenario, and from 56% in Ecosystems to 87% in Acidification in the 80% scenario. However, Abiotic Depletion potential grows up to 5-times by 2050 due to the metal requirements of the solar photovoltaic technologies, significantly present in the mix. Likewise, the analysis of the endpoint categories (Human Health and Ecosystems) concludes that their evolution is much affected by the presence of the natural gas CHPs and, furthermore, existing fossil options are the main cause of damage by far. Hence a fossil-renewable transition is needed in terms of sustainability. In summary, it is recommended to use energy systems modelling frameworks to develop comprehensive prospective LCA studies.